By: Nehal Hussien
The podcast is hosted through Cato Institute by John Glaser and Campbell Craig who is a professor of international politics to discuss the possibility of cooperation between USA and China. They elaborate on how adjustments in the U.S. military budget, threat perception, nuclear posturing, alliances, and domestic politics can help the two superpowers avoid a potential standoff.
Few days before Trump’s administration ended, Secretary Pompeo gave an order to lift all the restrictions that circle US and Taiwan relations. This is followed with many provocations from China which only fuels the cold war between it and the US.
Craig believes that Pompeo’s decision is made to gain funding supporters for the next elections. This is considered a classic politics that causes a threat to the United States. One of the reasons that Pompeo has gave this order is to force the Biden’s administration to make a decision to cancel this policy on Taiwan.
It is also pointed out that Trump seems to have a power conflict especially regarding China. Even if his conflict is obviously vague due to all the disturbing things he says. On the long term, the US viewed the commitment to Taiwan a bit differently in 1979 than 1950.
After comparing the Soviet Union to China, Craig states that there is a fundamental difference because China is a pivotal part of the goal economic order as it has not exclude itself from the capital world the way the Soviet Union declining state did after WWII. China seems to have studied the mistakes made by the Soviet Union during the cold war. Subsequently, China was able to avoid these mistakes by deciding not to equalize the US military power which has not happened for the last thirty years. China has also reasoned not to match US weapon for weapon because they viewed as a lost deal.
Craig adds that the more USA continue the cold war with China, the more Chinese decision makers will believe that maybe they should have followed the same path as the Soviet Union in terms of military power, weapon for weapon, and the nuclear power.
China is not seeking a second cold war with USA. However, it might be inevitable if the USA does not seek a rational solution to end this conflict. The actual friction between the US and China relations is that the Americans believe that China pose a real threat not in the geopolitical part but in the complex international trade part and technological innovation that involves the military. People in international politics suggest that USA should look at China as more of a competitor and not to adopt the concept of domination of all. Like compete on trade policy and soft power.
The Biden’s administration nuclear posture that they are adopting towards China seeks a nuclear war winning strategy. Which will cause a disaster. This can be avoided if Biden’s administration operates differently towards China.
Craig believes that the US should maintain strong commitment with traditional allies as Japan. Though, the US must realize that China is different than the Soviet Union during the cold war speaking of soft power and arms control.
USA and China can cooperate against a common threat which is the climate change. This threat causes huge economic and environmental losses which both countries have to focus on instead of engaging with China in matters that are not that crucial. They can also cooperate against the existing pandemic Covid-19.
References List
Source link: Domestic Politics and the China Scare | Cato Institute
